The most important economic data currently comes from the US labor market. But US President Donald Trump first had to deal with a problem.
US President Donald Trump is currently fighting on several fronts.
On the one hand, he has to deal with geopolitics and, on the other, keep an eye on economic developments.
Robust labor market
Trump’s main goal in the latter case is to achieve an interest rate cut so that the United States can refinance its government debt – which expires at the end of September – more cheaply.
The magnitude is gigantic, with a renewal volume of 9.3 trillion Dollars, as reported by muula.ch.
With just a one percentage point cut in the US key interest rate, the US could save hundreds of billions of dollars over the term.
However, the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is not backing down at the moment.
Although he considers inflation to be sufficiently low, the labor market is still far too robust to require stimulation through lower key interest rates.
Employment figures too good
This is where Erika McEntarfer, head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, comes into play. Since January 2024, she has been monitoring important statistics such as price developments and employment.
The official, who was appointed by US President Joe Biden, has essentially thrown a spanner in the works.
Economist and long-time civil servant McEntarfer reported overly positive US employment figures for months, which is why Fed Chairman Powell did not lower US key interest rates.
Unusual corrections
On Friday, her statistics agency reported that the US labor market was showing significant weakness at the beginning of the summer.
However, for the months of May and June, the bureau headed by McEntarfer revised the number of new jobs downward by 258,000.
Corrections are normal in statistics. The Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO) and the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) also often adjust data retroactively.
However, the extent to which the administration had to revise its job growth figures downward came as a surprise.
This suggests that the overestimation was politically motivated. US President Trump immediately instructed his team to fire the official.
Conspiracy against Trump
On Friday, after the dire situation for the US economy pertaining to the labor market became known, stock markets around the world immediately took a nose dive.
Trump immediately asserted that the US economy was booming. However, he also spoke of a conspiracy against him and of falsification of labor market figures.
Given the scale of the retroactive corrections, this cannot be just dismissed out of hand.
Dedicated to science
However, the US President is not sitting idly by on the path to lower interest rates. He cannot fire Fed Chairman Powell, nor can he force the US Federal Reserve to lower key interest rates.
Conveniently, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will vacate her post on August 8, rather than at the end of January 2026, the US central bank also announced on Friday.
She wants to concentrate on her professorship at Georgetown University again from the fall, it said, explaining the reason for her departure.
Zigzag course until interest rates are cut
This premature resignation gives Trump the opportunity to choose his own successor according to his preferences and thus exert pressure on Fed Chairman Powell from within the Fed.
All this because of a US statistician, and the world must continue to suffer from US President Trump’s zigzag course. Only when US key interest rates fall will his deals on punitive tariffs make sense.
Until then, the US will play for time economically with the rest of the world and focus on geopolitics.
02.08.2025/kut./ena.
